Best FPL differentials to target for the rest of the season (GW30+)
The run-in (whatever that means) has well and truly commenced, and the end of the 24/25 premier league season is in sight. Post blank GW29 there will be just 9 GWs remaining for us FPL managers to crawl up the OR rankings and more importantly our mini-leagues. It’s time to go all in on some differentials - and I mean ALL-IN! One of the best ways to make some ground up on your mini-league leaders is to go for some low ownership FPL picks, so that is exactly what we’ll be looking at in this post.
For the purposes of this article I’ll be using the most common definition of ‘differential’, that is, sub 10% ownership. Let’s dive right in.
Goalkeepers
Alisson (at the time of writing) is hovering at 9.9% ownership, so according to my definition - he’s a differential. I feel that we always get to a point in the season where the top teams begin to rotate their attack and midfield in order to stay fresh for champions league / cup competitions, making their attacking options far less appealing from an FPL perspective. This often happens with City, and in recent seasons it has began to happen with Liverpool too. Moreover, Slot seems far more open to the idea of rotation than Klopp ever was, meaning that doubling up on Liverpool defense is a valid FPL strategy.
Alisson has the most FPL points per start of any goalie to have played 15+ games this season. Higher pps than sels, and is only beaten in this category by keepers who have played 10 games or less (namely his teammate Kelleher!). He is often overlooked due to VVD’s goal threat and Trent’s creativity, but he can provide more than just clean sheets in his own right - making more than 3 saves in 4 of the last 8 GWs. Of course it is important to also point out here that he costs just 5.5m, cheaper than all other starting Liverpool defensive options outside of Konate.
Liverpool’s fixtures are fairly good until GW35, by which point they may have already wrapped up the league (so it would probably be a good time to ditch their players anyway), so he’s a great pick up if you’re on a WC30/31 in my opinion.
Other options to consider:
Kepa (2.9%) - Good fixtures short term, Bournemouth likely to turn around their poor form of late, 3rd best GA record, 5th best xGA.
Ederson (4.8%) - City’s fixture run is the talk of the town at the moment, with many managers considering an attacking double up. Honestly, out of their defensive options - I prefer Ederson (assist potential, nailed, save points, price etc.)
Defenders
Moving on now to the defense. The teams to target defensively from GW30 onwards are: Forest, Bournemouth, Man City, and Spurs - and from GW33/34 Everton and Fulham. Those are the teams that have good runs of fixtures, are in decent form at the moment and have at least some defensive ability.
As mentioned I think Ederson is the best pick from City, I wouldn’t go for any of their other options as they’re fairly over priced and offer little attacking potential.
Milenkovic is the 2nd highest owned defender from Forest and sits at just under 8% ownership at time of writing. His 0.14xG/90 is pretty good for a CB, and most importantly he is nailed, whereas Nico Williams (who has a marginally higher xG/90 and a substantially higher xA/90) is arguably not. Murillo is the other potential Forest option; though his goal threat is lower, he has managed to secure 11 bonus points over the course of the season so far, compared to Milenkovic’s 1. Despite their recent slump, Forest are still a great team, and one that we should be targeting considering their upcoming fixture run…
While I think Kepa is perhaps the best Bournemouth defensive asset outside of Kerkez (who is of course not a differential), we should also take a look at the other options on the table… None of their defenders have particularly stand out attacking numbers, so it’s perhaps best to look for the cheapest option - which is their young CB Hill. With Senesi and Zabarnyi both out, Hill has recently been starting at CB alongside Huijsen, making him a great option for those of us looking for a cheaper differential.
Outside of him, Huijsen is also under 5% ownership, so could be considered if you’ve got a bit of extra cash, as he is likely to keep his place in the team when other defenders return from injury. I rate Bournemouth’s defense ‘short term’, but I think there are better options from GW34 onwards.
Onto the more controversial options… I really like the look of Spurs; they have decent fixtures, and will have lots of their players returning between now and their game against Southampton in GW31 (when many managers will be playing their WC chip). Porro is somehow still sitting at around 20% TSB, though his effective ownership in the higher ranks will be quite low (his EO in the top 10K is just 1.2% at time of writing). Still, he doesn’t count as a differential…
Therefore, I am proposing Udogie! Much cheaper (0.5m) than Porro, Udogie is a great differential for those of us who are looking to take advantage of Spurs’ fixture run and the boost they’ll get from their returning players. His numbers are substantially lower than Porro’s, but he has showed in the past that he can and will get up the pitch and get involved in the attack, so I have no doubt that he is the best differential Spurs defender. I’m bullish about Spurs - when all of their players are fit they are truly a force to be reckoned with, so I’m betting on them to have a strong end to the season…
Post GW34:
O’Brien - threat from corners, nailed for Everton, cheap, big differential energy
Van De Ven - 2nd best differential spurs asset imo
Fulham defense - like their fixtures from around GW33/34 onwards. Robinson of course the most popular pick, but wouldn’t mind a CB from them
Midfielders
I am well and truly on the MGW hype train right now - all steam ahead! I had Gibbs-White from GW21-GW23, in which time he returned 1 goal involvement, a single assist against Southampton, before I sold him in GW24, the week he helped Forest to a 7-0 win against Brighton, providing his team with 1 goal and 2 assists… Since then he’s managed 3 goal involvements in 4 games, despite those 4 games coming against some of the strongest teams in the league (Fulham, Newcastle, Arsenal and City).
13 of his 14 goal involvements have come since GW15, having suffered a number of injuries and a bit of poor form in the first half of the campaign. He's a great pick going forwards, with Forest one of few teams with something still to play for. I’ve already discussed their fixtures in above sections, so I won’t go into too much detail here, but with two possible DGWs on the horizon, they’re definitely one to watch.
I'm also keen on Spurs (if you couldn't already tell). I think they'll go out of the Europa league this round, meaning that they will only have the league to focus on for the remainder of the season. My personal favourite is Johnson, though he is unlikely to be able to nail down a starting spot in the team. The Welshman has great numbers and is so direct and fast, it's just unfortunate his minutes are not secure.
If we're being more realistic, then none of the spurs attackers (bar Solanke) are nailed, and it's so hard to predict who will start in either the midfield or attacking spots ATM, with Kulu out, Madison out of form and the wingers constantly rotating. So maybe Johnson is the best option (I'm convincing myself he is as im writing this), but if you're unsure and want to wait till it's clear what the preferred XI is, then that's fine too… The only other viable option is Son, who has pretty good underlying numbers (though admittedly a lot lower than they have been in recent years) but is pretty nailed at the moment and is also under 10% ownership.
Final suggestion is going to be Crystal Palace’s Sarr, a player who is actually 5th highest for predicted points between now and the end of the season despite only being owned by less than 4% of managers. I had him in my team for a period (a period in which he blanked pretty much every week - of course) and am now looking at getting him back in due to Palace’s attractive fixture run in the short term - though post GW22 it gets a bit tricky…
Palace are in great form, and now have a fully settled starting XI. They are still in the FA cup, which may be a cause for concern, as they are unlikely to get into Europe via league position (though not impossible considering their recent form). If you like xG etc. then get a load of this: 0.43xG/90 + 0.33xA/90 = 0.76xGI/90 - that’s a higher xGI than any other player in the Crystal Palace squad. He has been under performing so far, currently sitting on 7 goals and 3 assists from 9.4xG and 7.0xA, but that’s not all down to him. With Palace continuing to grow into the season I can see Sarr going on a run, and bumping his output up for the remainder of the season. They’ve got some tough fixtures, but he’s definitely one to watch, and someone I would very much consider on a GW30 WC.
Other potential options:
Murphy: Great form, super cheap, but not great fixtures for the rest of the season.
Adama: Unreal numbers, if he can nail down a place in the team then he’s a great pick short and long term with some tougher fixtures GW30-33 (though I’d expect him to profit on the transition against those teams) then an easier run GW33+
Forwards
I’ve made my undying love for Marmoush fairly clear (see my article on him), and I stand by the idea that he’s a very attractive pick between now and the end of the season considering City’s fixtures. That being said, he is already over 10% ownership, so he doesn’t count (but I think he’s great).
Mateta is somehow only 5% owned, and is predicted to return the third most points behind Isak and Haaland between now and GW38. That being said, the fixtures post GW33 are tough, especially if Palace remain in the FA cup, so I’d consider him more as a short term option (but nonetheless a great one).
NGL I’m not hot on too many forwards at the moment - as Haaland and Isak are basically a lock in most people’s teams there isn’t that much space for a second or third forward option anyway. I’ll continue to mull it over, but outside of Mateta, there aren’t too many differential options I would hang my hat on…
Post GW34:
Solanke: I’m keen on Spurs, and Solanke is their most nailed attacker. He was a pretty good asset at the start of the season, and most importantly (as mentioned) is a dead set to start when fit.
Evanilson: Short term BOU have some great fixtures, and Evanilson’s underlying numbers are good, he just struggles to convert those into real term output at times.
Gakpo: Perhaps a biased pick - if he can regain his starting position on the LW (which is likely considering Diaz’ form), he’s a great option short term before LFC wrap up the league and have nothing to play for. They’re out of all other comps so I’d expect them to go all in for the league and smack some teams around a bit (looking at Leicester, WHU, Spurs Chelsea in particular)